The real unknown is what Covid-19 does around other viruses. Every autumn there is a predictable series of outbreaks of respiratory viruses. It starts with rhinovirus, the main cause of the common cold, which breaks out every September as young children go to school and swap mucus. As no parent needs to be told, children are to sniffles what mosquitoes are to malaria.
This is a report from a leaked government report. Its is not sure how these predictions are made, and whether it is because of reopening. The white house officials have been relying on other models (than CDC) to make decisions on reopening. The estimates here are based on premature relaxation of restrictions.
Joblosses are explained in terms of reallocation, search and supply. The Fed is worried that many of the jobs lost will not be coming back.
Neuroscientist Karl Friston, of University College London, builds mathematical models of human brain function. Lately, he’s been applying his modelling to Covid-19. He says, our approach, which borrows from physics and in particular the work of Richard Feynman, goes under the bonnet. It attempts to capture the mathematical structure of the phenomenon – in this case, the pandemic – and to understand the causes of what is observed.
As epidemiologists attempt to scope out what Covid-19 has in store for the U.S. this summer and beyond, they see several potential futures, differing by how often and how severely the no-longer-new coronavirus continues to wallop humankind.
With all the unknowns about covid-19, any numbers you hear about death tolls or how long restrictions will last should be taken not just with a pinch of salt but with a sack of it.